A probabilistic model is developed in this work to predict the internal corrosion (IC) threat due to water condensation in dry natural gas pipelines. The model involves the understanding of tariff limits (TLs) for water and other corrosive species in natural gas; a consensus definition of an extremely unlikely condition for IC threat; a statistical analysis of field operating temperature, pressure, and water content (WC) data from a number of operators; and a known but modified relation of the saturated WC vs. operating temperature and pressure. By setting the limit of the probability of water condensation at 2% of the time that the pipe surface is wet, the maximum WC allowed in the natural gas can be determined for any given temperature and pressure. Practical operating charts have been developed for guiding pipeline operators to understand and minimize IC threats in dry gas (DG) pipelines. This paper presents the probabilistic modeling approach and discusses some model results.

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