This paper presents an assessment case study on several segments of buried natural gas pipeline constructed in 1936 with ‘bell-bell-chill ring’ (BBCR) style girth weld joints, and currently operating in a seismically active region of North America. Seismic vulnerability was evaluated in terms of girth weld fracture and plastic collapse probabilities for specified hazards of varying severity and likelihood. Monte Carlo simulations performed in NESSUS® provided failure probability estimates from distributed inputs based on PIPLIN deformation analyses, nondestructive and destructive flaw sizing, residual stress measurements, weld metal tensile and CTOD tests, and limit state functions based on published stress intensity and collapse solutions.
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Probabilistic Assessment of a 70-Year Old Pipeline Subject to Seismic Deformation
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Warke, RW, Hart, JD, & Thacker, BH. "Probabilistic Assessment of a 70-Year Old Pipeline Subject to Seismic Deformation." Proceedings of the 2006 International Pipeline Conference. Volume 2: Integrity Management; Poster Session; Student Paper Competition. Calgary, Alberta, Canada. September 25–29, 2006. pp. 743-754. ASME. https://doi.org/10.1115/IPC2006-10487
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