A model is described for predicting the incidence of high-pH SCC on gas pipelines. The model is mechanistic and is based on a film rupture mechanism of crack growth. Based on field pressure cycle data, the model determines the crack tip strain rate and the occurrence of film rupture events at the crack tip during operating pressure cycles. Crack aspect ratio data were obtained from field data. Probabilistic distribution functions were assigned to input parameters and a Monte Carlo method was used to produce probabilistic crack growth rate distributions. The model grows a crack to failure while considering the effects of temperature and potential.

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