Economic Transportation Risk Assessment From Offshore Oil Fields to Refineries

This paper describes an analysis of the transportation reliability and economic risk associated with potential accidents during the lifetime of a brand new enterprise. The methodology was applied during the technical-financial assessment of offshore and onshore transportation from oil fields to refineries. It considered operations involving the potential for environment damage and business interruption. The case study considered two major configurations: Maritime+Pipelines: combining FPSOs (Floating Production, Storage and Offloading), tankers, terminals, and onshore pipelines; and Pure Pipelines: SSs (Semi-submersibles) and offshore and onshore pipeline system conveying oil to refineries. Each installation/activity with potential to generate an accident was represented by one block on the diagram, in the reliability study. The consequences to the transportation enterprise were defined based on economic impact. It was necessary to mine information on the environmental costs of past accidents within the company, as well as worldwide. Business interruption was considered for the transportation project and also for the refineries connected in the process. The risk for each route configuration from oil field to refinery was developed by plotting the frequency and consequence data in a spreadsheet for each activity along the transportation route. As a result we developed a comparative risk analysis table to support a major financial assessment. Beyond the traditional process of assessing projects in terms of investment and return, PETROBRAS is now considering other aspects, such as potential accidents that may play a role in assessing financial feasibility.