Natural oil and gas transmission pipeline networks often traverse regions where potential slow ground movements may affect pipeline structural integrity. One of the primary causes of slow ground movement in any region involves the duration, amount, and intensity of rainfall. The phenomenon of rainfall-induced slow ground movement is characterized by both spatial and temporal variability, and involves uncertainties that are best modeled using a probabilistic methodology. A random field modeling strategy is formulated in this study, in which spatial and temporal correlations between rainfall and ground movement are accounted for. The random field formulation advanced in the current study has a number of significant features and capabilities, including modeling the spatial and temporal relationship between rainfall and slope movement for specified pipeline routes, predicting the likelihood of exceeding slope movement thresholds for various precipitation levels and intensities, and providing maps of risk for slope movement, which can be used as a guide in pipeline route planning, selection, and adaptation strategies for the design and maintenance of oil and gas infrastructure. These capabilities have been implemented and encapsulated into the software tool VSLOPE, which has been tested using monthly rainfall and field data for various locations.

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