Abstract

Simulation credibility relies upon Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification (VVUQ) techniques. VVUQ methods check the simulation code, the modeling system, the assumptions used and examines how much uncertainty is associated with various stages of the development. This, in turn, gives the program managers and design leaders the information needed to make informed, ethical decisions on how to carry out the design and testing. Arguably, this should be used with any engineering simulation. The challenge is the various VVUQ methods are rooted in engineering domains of high uncertainty and high risk, such as space flight, medical devices, and nuclear power. These designs are “nondeterministic,” or have no design codes that establishes safe limits in design by analysis. In traditional engineering, VVUQ is not needed because the work is done in a well understood area. Uncertainty has been addressed with the use of well-known practices and established design margins. This paper offers a “deterministic VVUQ” method intended for situations where simulation methods like Finite Element Method are used within the bounds of an overarching design code. This will provide a measure of quality control to the simulations without the expense and time of a full nondeterministic VVUQ process.

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