A critical component of Systems Engineering (SE) is to conduct a thorough Risk Analysis. This paper introduces a novel hybrid approach to develop a Reliability-Risk modeling technique that will be able to rank Conceptual Designs as a function of Reliability. A traditional SE approach is used to identify all success modes associated with the development of a complex system. Also, the Advanced Development, Design, Integration & Evaluation, Production, and Operation & Support that make up the major phases of a Systems Engineering model will define the Holographic Reliability Design Space.

Requirements of the System under development are captured through the implementation of the Integration Definition Function Modeling (IDEF0) technique. The IDEF0 method is defined in Federal Information Processing Standard Publications (FIPS PUBS 183) [1]. Using the developed IDEF0 model allows the function of each component to be identified, the proper reliability model to be chosen, and completion of a reliability-based analysis.

Upon completion of calculating the reliability, for each criterion, the use of a Multi-Criteria Decision System (MCDS) is required to rank the conceptual designs in terms of reliability. A MCDS was developed to analyze the conflicting objects inherent during the design and integration of any complex system.

The model developed herein was used to analyze 5 Packaging Conceptual designs being considered to become part of the military Supply Chain. After completion of the analysis, the new and innovative Packaging Designs were ranked based on reliabilities associated with design, test, integration, manufacturing, and incorporation into the existing Supply Chain. The results of the rankings were then presented to the ultimate decision makers for final approval.

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