During its life cycle, each engineering product goes through different stages of planning, production and usage. Uncertainties occur in all of these phases. As defined, uncertainties in technical systems are present as far as product and process properties are not determined and deviations of these properties arise. They result either from imperfect information about output values of production processes (regarding product properties) or in terms of diverging uses of the products. Especially within the product development process, the occurring uncertainties have to be taken into account. During the early design stages, decisions that have a variously strong impact on the future product are made. Moreover, the knowledge about a future product is still low so that neither the expected processes nor the product’s properties are known. For this reason, well-known methods of probabilistic uncertainty analysis are not sufficient. They cannot be applied until the product is completely defined. A comprehensive uncertainly analysis in the product development process can be executed in an integrated process model with the Uncertainly Mode and Effects Analysis Methodology (UMEA) [1]. The underlying model of uncertainly is the basis for a comprehensive and consistent classification of uncertainly, a distinction comparable to concepts such as reliability, availability, error or risk. The model to analyze uncertainty has been exercised using the example of the product development process according to Pahl/Beitz [2]. It enables the assignment of suitable methods for the classification of uncertainty at different stages in the design process and thus different levels of abstraction. Based on this model, the quantitative methods of the probability theory are complemented by qualitative concepts such as risk analysis methods, for example, FailureMode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Event Tree Analysis (ETA), or Hazard and Operability (HAZOP). The assignment of methods offers the possibility to analyze the classified uncertainties in the different phases of the product development process.
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ASME 2010 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition
November 12–18, 2010
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
Conference Sponsors:
- ASME
ISBN:
978-0-7918-4448-9
PROCEEDINGS PAPER
An Assignment of Methods to Analyze Uncertainty in Different Stages of the Development Process
Tobias Eifler,
Tobias Eifler
TU Darmstadt, Darmstadt, Germany
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Roland Engelhardt,
Roland Engelhardt
TU Darmstadt, Darmstadt, Germany
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Johannes Mathias,
Johannes Mathias
TU Darmstadt, Darmstadt, Germany
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Hermann Kloberdanz,
Hermann Kloberdanz
TU Darmstadt, Darmstadt, Germany
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Herbert Birkhofer
Herbert Birkhofer
TU Darmstadt, Darmstadt, Germany
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Tobias Eifler
TU Darmstadt, Darmstadt, Germany
Roland Engelhardt
TU Darmstadt, Darmstadt, Germany
Johannes Mathias
TU Darmstadt, Darmstadt, Germany
Hermann Kloberdanz
TU Darmstadt, Darmstadt, Germany
Herbert Birkhofer
TU Darmstadt, Darmstadt, Germany
Paper No:
IMECE2010-39126, pp. 303-313; 11 pages
Published Online:
April 30, 2012
Citation
Eifler, T, Engelhardt, R, Mathias, J, Kloberdanz, H, & Birkhofer, H. "An Assignment of Methods to Analyze Uncertainty in Different Stages of the Development Process." Proceedings of the ASME 2010 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition. Volume 11: New Developments in Simulation Methods and Software for Engineering Applications; Safety Engineering, Risk Analysis and Reliability Methods; Transportation Systems. Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. November 12–18, 2010. pp. 303-313. ASME. https://doi.org/10.1115/IMECE2010-39126
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