The issues faced during the operation of high-consequence facilities or systems require a blended quantitative and qualitative risk-informed approach to decision-making. For example, in the case of the operation of nuclear power plants or manned space missions, a risk-informed metric one might consider is the probability of loss of the plant or failure of the mission, where this probability is balanced by the consequences of the event. However, as we will discuss, one should focus on the observable event itself (e.g., the actual loss or failure) rather than the probability of the event. We will describe the general approach of making probabilistic decisions, including the focus on predictive distributions for outcomes such as a complex system failure.

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