Predicting Cost of Poor Quality and Reliability for Systems Using Failure Modes and Effects Analysis

Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a design tool that mitigates risks during the design phase before they occur. Although many industries use the traditional FMEA technique, it has many limitations and problems. Traditional FMEA identifies failure modes with high risk but does not consider the consequences in terms of cost, which could lead to unnecessarily expensive solutions. We have used a new methodology, “Life Cost-Based FMEA,” which measures risk of failure in terms of cost to compare two different technologies that might be used for the Next Linear Collider (NLC) magnets: electromagnets or permanent magnets. We derived the availability estimates for the two different types of magnet systems using empirical data from Stanford Linear Accelerator Center’s (SLAC) accelerator failure database as well as expert opinions on permanent magnet failure modes and industry standard failure data. We can predict the labor and material costs to repair magnet failures using a Monte Carlo simulation of all possible magnet failures over a 30-year lifetime. Our goal is to maximize up-time of the NLC through magnet design improvements and the optimal combination of electromagnets and permanent magnets, while reducing magnet system lifecycle costs.