Impact of Prognosis on Asset Life Extension and Readiness

Fatigue response of structural components is determined by environmental conditions, material microstructure, and loading history. Variation of these factors results in significant scatter in fatigue-crack growth rates and component life. In this paper, the impact of prognosis capability on asset life extension and readiness is evaluated. Fatigue-crack growth data on aluminum samples under controlled spectrum loading are used to describe the statistics of the crack-size distribution. Several sensors with different probability of detection (POD) characteristics are considered for detecting cracks of critical size, and the effect of the POD on the component life extension is evaluated. Although the crack-detection capability leads to the asset life extension, it is not sufficient to maintain required mission readiness. On the other hand, the prognosis capability, which is based on the knowledge of the component’s current damage state, damage evolution laws, and upcoming mission loading, allows required mission readiness to be maintained.