The NATO Reference Mobility Model (NRMM) has been developed to predict the mobility of off-road ground vehicles based on modeling and simulation (M&S). Due to various uncertainty sources in the M&S, uncertainty is inherent in the vehicle mobility. Aims to account for the uncertainty in the mobility prediction in mission planning, this paper develops a simulation-based mission mobility reliability analysis framework for off-road ground vehicles. A concept of mission mobility reliability (MMR) is first proposed to quantify the reliability of a mission path which passes through different types of soils. A single-loop Kriging surrogate modeling method is then employed to overcome the challenge in the mission mobility reliability assessment caused by the computationally expensive mobility simulation. Built upon the surrogate model-based mission mobility reliability analysis, a dynamic updating scheme is proposed to update the MMR estimation based on the on-line mobility data, during the course of a specific mission and for a particular vehicle. The online dynamic updating of MMR allows for effective and dynamic decision making during the mission phase. A case study is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed MMR analysis and updating framework.

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