A modular design is effective method in order to keep coexistence of environmental consciousness and variety of product. However, the lifecycle time is very long, so that a market could change greatly in the meantime. This is one of the major reasons that a judgment of a good or bad modular structure is not easy for the designer. In order to solve this problem, two methodologies are required: (1) a prediction method of the change of the market in long life span of the product family, and (2) a design method of the life-cycle and module structure based on the predicted market change. The aim of this research is to develop a method of the ability to design the optimal modular structure considering life-cycle calculation based on the sales scenario defined by the plan and prediction of the sales of the line-up products in the product family. This paper assumed that the market change is modeled as a number of the sold product. Based on this assumption and change of the quantity of the sales products by the change of the customer requirements and the competitive products in market are modeled as a sales scenario of a product family. An example is validated for effectiveness of the proposed method based on the proto-type system.

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