To estimate profitability of a new system in the conceptual design stage, engineers need to estimate the cost of concept (the cost of the final system developed from each system concept). If engineers have abundant experiences developing similar systems, they can construct a knowledge-base consisting of historical cost data and use it to estimate the cost of concept. However, if the firm is entering a new market, engineers do not have historical cost data to accurately estimate the cost of concept. In this case, engineers need to benchmark similar systems in the marketplace and construct a knowledge-base with the benchmarked information. This paper proposes an approach toward developing a distribution (belief) about the cost of concept using a knowledge-base. The proposed approach retrieves a subset of information from the knowledge-base relevant to estimating the cost of concept, constructs a histogram about the cost of concept, and develops a distribution of the cost of concept. This paper demonstrates the proposed approach by using printers as an illustrative example.
- Design Engineering Division and Computers and Information in Engineering Division
An Approach Toward Estimating Cost of a New System in the Conceptual Design Stage Using Knowledge-Base
- Views Icon Views
- Share Icon Share
- Search Site
Takai, S. "An Approach Toward Estimating Cost of a New System in the Conceptual Design Stage Using Knowledge-Base." Proceedings of the ASME 2007 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. Volume 4: ASME/IEEE International Conference on Mechatronic and Embedded Systems and Applications and the 19th Reliability, Stress Analysis, and Failure Prevention Conference. Las Vegas, Nevada, USA. September 4–7, 2007. pp. 731-739. ASME. https://doi.org/10.1115/DETC2007-35072
Download citation file: