Current design decisions must be made while considering uncertainty in both models and inputs to the design. In most cases this uncertainty is ignored in the hope that it is not important to the decision making process. This paper presents a methodology for managing uncertainty during system-level conceptual design of complex multidisciplinary systems. The methodology is based upon quantifying the information available in computationally expensive subsystem models with more computationally efficient kriging models. By using kriging models, the computational expense of a Monte Carlo simulation to assess the impact of the sources of uncertainty on system-level performance parameters becomes tractable. The use of a kriging model as an approximation to an original computer model introduces model uncertainty, which is included as part of the methodology. The methodology is demonstrated as a decision making tool for the design of a satellite system.
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ASME 2005 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference
September 24–28, 2005
Long Beach, California, USA
Conference Sponsors:
- Design Engineering Division and Computers and Information in Engineering Division
ISBN:
0-7918-4739-X
PROCEEDINGS PAPER
A Methodology to Manage Uncertainty During System-Level Conceptual Design
Jay D. Martin,
Jay D. Martin
Applied Research Laboratory, State College, PA
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Timothy W. Simpson
Timothy W. Simpson
Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA
Search for other works by this author on:
Jay D. Martin
Applied Research Laboratory, State College, PA
Timothy W. Simpson
Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA
Paper No:
DETC2005-84984, pp. 1183-1193; 11 pages
Published Online:
June 11, 2008
Citation
Martin, JD, & Simpson, TW. "A Methodology to Manage Uncertainty During System-Level Conceptual Design." Proceedings of the ASME 2005 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. Volume 2: 31st Design Automation Conference, Parts A and B. Long Beach, California, USA. September 24–28, 2005. pp. 1183-1193. ASME. https://doi.org/10.1115/DETC2005-84984
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