Abstract

This paper presents a product development process modeling and analysis technique using advanced simulation. The model computes the probability distribution of lead time in a resource-constrained project network where iterations take place among sequential, parallel and overlapped tasks. The model uses the design structure matrix representation to capture the information flows between tasks. In each simulation run, the expected durations of tasks are initially sampled using the Latin Hypercube Sampling method and decrease over time as the model simulates the progress of dynamic stochastic processes. It is assumed that the rework of a task occurs for the following reasons: (1) new information is obtained from overlapped tasks after starting to work with preliminary inputs, (2) inputs change when other tasks are reworked, and (3) outputs fail to meet established criteria. The model can be used for better project planning and control by identifying leverage points for process improvements and evaluating alternative planning and execution strategies. An industrial example is used to illustrate the utility of the model.

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