Technology insertion into an existing system or subsystem requires careful planning and evaluation. Because the technology is new, there is often limited information upon which to base decisions. Further, decisions about technology insertion are typically made in the very early stages of a project when detailed information is sparse. Under these circumstances, the available information is typically linguistic, and fuzzy methods can be used to significant advantage in this environment.
The implementation discussed in this paper employs an Excel spread sheet for user interface, and it employs COTS (Commercial Off the Shelf Technology) software for an inference engine. Heuristic based models are developed to evaluate risk in technology insertion. Risk elements include: budget risk, schedule risk, and performance risk. Results with an example problem are described to illustrate the fuzzy logic method, and conclusions are drawn regarding the advantages of this technique.