The hidden variable tracking method developed by Cusumano et al. (1998) is analyzed using a simple model of the mechanical oscillator with nonstationary two-well potential previously studied experimentally. Numerical experiments conducted using the model are in good agreement with the experimental study, and explicitly show how the tracking metric (or drift observer) is related to drift in system parameters caused by the slow evolution of a hidden variable. Using the idea of averaging, the slow flow equation governing hidden variable evolution is obtained. It is shown that solutions to the slow flow equation correspond to the drift trajectory obtained with the experimental tracking method.

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