Basically, decommissioning of nuclear facilities is a project that does not generate new profit because it is carried out with the reserve funds from operation, etc. Therefore, its cost should be minimized with optimization by shortening the process and minimizing the waste, etc. Meeting the requirements of exposure risk (safety) also affects the optimization. In this study, we decided to integrate these evaluation methods to develop a comprehensive optimization evaluation method.
In this study, we established an average process for the current decommissioning plans of Japanese nuclear power plants and developed a cost evaluation method including sensitivity analysis.
As a result of examining the feasibility of the deferred dismantling strategy using the above calculation method, it became clear that although there is a reduction in disposal and dismantling costs due to the natural decay of radioactive materials, the maintenance and management costs during the safe storage period account for a large proportion of the costs, and for this reason, immediate dismantling is unconditionally advantageous, at least in Japan.
The components of optimization described above are naturally subject to various uncertainties and risks. For example, there are regulatory risks, and the location of waste disposal site is subject to social acceptance, so there is a great deal of uncertainty. In the future, these factors will be incorporated into the evaluation and studied, and the optimal strategy for decommissioning and what kind of uncertainty should be focused on will be clarified quantitatively.