Abstract

This paper addresses the use of a new nuclear power plant performance risk analysis tool. The new tool is called Versatile Economic Risk Tool (VERT). VERT couples Idaho National Laboratory’s SAPHIRE and RAVEN software packages. SAPHIRE is traditionally used for performing probabilistic risk assessment and RAVEN is a multi-purpose uncertainty quantification, regression analysis, probabilistic risk assessment, data analysis and model optimization software framework. Using fault tree models, degradation models, reliability data, and economic information, VERT can assess relative system performance risks as a function of time. Risk can be quantified in megawatt hours (MWh) which can be converted to dollars. To demonstrate the value of VERT, generic pressurized water reactor and boiling water reactor fault tree models were developed along with time dependent reliability data to investigate the plant systems, structures, and components that impacted performance from the year 1980 to 2020. The results confirm the overall notion that US nuclear power plant industry operational performance has been improving since 1980. More importantly, the results identify equipment that negatively or positively impact performance. Thus, using VERT, individual plant operators can target systems, structures, and components that merit greater attention from a performance perspective.

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