In presence of a weak neutron source, the initial growth of neutron population in a supercritical system exhibits a significant stochastic feature, both initiation and burst waiting times are uncertain. As a result, the energy released during criticality excursions is stochastic, obeying a probability distribution. When criticality accidents and pulsed reactor experiments are analyzed, it is important to estimate this kind of stochastic feature, including assessing the initiation probability and then the fission energy probability distribution. Thus a Monte Carlo direct simulation method has been proposed and the corresponding code MES has been developed. By taking random factors during criticality excursions into account in dynamic Monte Carlo simulations, this method is capable of simulating the whole process from source injection to exponential growth of the neutron population, and finally to extinction of the neutron pulse. A set of static initiation probability problems and a figurative criticality excursion problem have been applied to validate this method and MES. Results demonstrate that with the proposed method MES is able to simulate stochastic transient neutron fields in multiplying systems during criticality excursions.

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