The source term information of radioactive release in a nuclear accident is important for nuclear accident classification, radiological consequences evaluation and emergency response. Two major categories of source term estimation techniques are forward method based on the status data of the nuclear reactor and backward method based on environmental monitoring data. Although the forward method is more widely used, it may introduce large uncertainties into the source term estimate due to its subjective parameters and low quality of reactor status data in a severe accident. To reduce these uncertainties, a coupled source term estimation method that combines both forward and backward models, is proposed in this study. The forward part provides a source term forecast model based on Response Technical Manual RTM-96. Under the framework of sequential data assimilation, the backward part iteratively reduces the uncertainties in the source term estimate using environmental monitoring data. Numerical experiments with different uncertainties are performed using the reactor and monitoring point information of real Chinese nuclear power plant and its atmospheric tracer experiments.
- Nuclear Engineering Division
Coupled Source Term Estimation Using Both Forward and Backward Method for Nuclear Power Plant Accident
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Sun, S, Fang, S, Liu, Y, & Li, H. "Coupled Source Term Estimation Using Both Forward and Backward Method for Nuclear Power Plant Accident." Proceedings of the 2016 24th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering. Volume 4: Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and Coupled Codes; Decontamination and Decommissioning, Radiation Protection, Shielding, and Waste Management; Workforce Development, Nuclear Education and Public Acceptance; Mitigation Strategies for Beyond Design Basis Events; Risk Management. Charlotte, North Carolina, USA. June 26–30, 2016. V004T14A008. ASME. https://doi.org/10.1115/ICONE24-60176
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