The facts that the implicit precursors which are not easily quantified are underlying factors are already known. The current Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is limited in its ability to quantify the importance of accident causes. It is, therefore, difficult to achieve quantifiable decision-making for resource allocation. In this study, the methodology which facilitates quantifying these precursors and a case study is presented. First, four implicit precursors have been obtained by evaluating the causality and hierarchy structure of various accident factors. Eventually it turned out they represent the lack of knowledge. After four precursors are selected, sub-precursors were investigated and their cause-consequence relationship was implemented by Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). To prioritize the precursors, the prior probability is initially estimated by expert judgment and updated upon observations. The pair-wise importance between precursors is calculated by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the results are converted into node probability tables of the BBN model. Using this method, the sensitivity and the posterior probability of each precursor can be analyzed so that it enables to make prioritization for the factors. Authors tried to prioritize the lessons-learned from Fukushima accident to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed methodology.
Skip Nav Destination
2014 22nd International Conference on Nuclear Engineering
July 7–11, 2014
Prague, Czech Republic
Conference Sponsors:
- Nuclear Engineering Division
ISBN:
978-0-7918-4593-6
PROCEEDINGS PAPER
Prioritization of Underlying Precursors in Nuclear Accidents Available to Purchase
Sujin Park,
Sujin Park
Kyung Hee University, Yougin, Gyeonggi, South Korea
Search for other works by this author on:
Huichang Yang,
Huichang Yang
TUV Rheinland Korea Ltd., Seoul, South Korea
Search for other works by this author on:
Gyunyoung Heo,
Gyunyoung Heo
Kyung Hee University, Yougin, Gyeonggi, South Korea
Search for other works by this author on:
Muhammad Zubair
Muhammad Zubair
University of Engineering and Technology, Taxila, Pakistan
Search for other works by this author on:
Sujin Park
Kyung Hee University, Yougin, Gyeonggi, South Korea
Huichang Yang
TUV Rheinland Korea Ltd., Seoul, South Korea
Gyunyoung Heo
Kyung Hee University, Yougin, Gyeonggi, South Korea
Muhammad Zubair
University of Engineering and Technology, Taxila, Pakistan
Paper No:
ICONE22-30632, V003T06A024; 10 pages
Published Online:
November 17, 2014
Citation
Park, S, Yang, H, Heo, G, & Zubair, M. "Prioritization of Underlying Precursors in Nuclear Accidents." Proceedings of the 2014 22nd International Conference on Nuclear Engineering. Volume 3: Next Generation Reactors and Advanced Reactors; Nuclear Safety and Security. Prague, Czech Republic. July 7–11, 2014. V003T06A024. ASME. https://doi.org/10.1115/ICONE22-30632
Download citation file:
7
Views
Related Proceedings Papers
Related Articles
Risk-Based Resource Allocation for Collaborative System Design in a Distributed Environment
J. Mech. Des (June,2008)
Development of a Seismic Probabilistic Safety Assessment Quantification Tool
ASME J of Nuclear Rad Sci (October,2018)
Linking Optimal Design Decisions to the Theory of the Firm: The Case
of Resource Allocation
J. Mech. Des (May,2005)
Related Chapters
Application of Probabilistic Methods for the Evaluation of Deterministic Deviations from Technical Specifications (PSAM-0277)
Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management (PSAM)
A PSA Update to Reflect Procedural Changes (PSAM-0217)
Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management (PSAM)
Bayessian Clasiffier Supported by Coverage and Acuracy in Breast Cancerdetection
International Conference on Computer and Computer Intelligence (ICCCI 2011)