Fukushima accident shows again that the probability of reactor accident exists even though it is extremely small. In case of emergency in nuclear power plant, emergency condition of the reactor plays an important role in decision making. During emergency response, especially early stage of severe accident with large release of radioactive nuclides, decision making for protection actions should be based on emergency condition in NPPs. If emergency condition could be prognosed, more time could be bought for decision making and emergency response.

In this paper, method for prognosis of large break loss of coolant (LBLOCA) initiated severe accident progression was established based on transient analysis for M310 reactor. Mass and energy conservation equations are the basis of the method. Separated flow model is used for prognosis of emergency condition for large break loss of coolant accident initiated severe accident. These conservation equations are solved approximately in order to significantly increase calculation speed. The active core is divided into 4 radial rings and 10 axial levels, which means there are 40 cells. Heat transfer calculation in the core is done using four experimental correlations.

Based on the method established in this paper, a code using for prognosis of LBLOCA initiated severe accident emergency condition was developed. Research on method for prognosis of other severe accidents are being conducted.

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