Uncertainties are addressed in the special context of assessing and managing risks from rare, severe-consequence hazards. Risk Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM) is used to analyze uncertainties during severe accidents analysis in nuclear power plants. In-vessel Retention (IVR) is one of the mitigations for severe accidents which will cause core damage. By external reactor vessel cooling (ERVC), the integrity of the reactor vessel is preserved. The success criterion for IVR is the local heat flux on the wall of lower head is less than the critical heat flux (CHF). This paper analyzes the uncertain parameters which decide the mitigation to be successful or fail. Two bounding structures and 4 molten pool steady states are defined. And the success probability of IVR is evaluated with a molten pool heat transfer model. Then the effectiveness of IVR-ERVC under the two bounding structures is evaluated.

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