The Use of Stochastic Models to Measure Damage Potential in Acceleration Time Series

ARMA models are obtained with parameters chosen to fit real accelerograms of different earthquake records. The maximum likelihood technique is used to estimate the parameters. A random set of earthquakes is generated for each event and used to establish statistically valid structural response spectra. From a sample of earthquakes, the mean and variance of response spectral ordinates are obtained for damage predictors namely peak linear displacement, ductility demand and hysteretic energy demand and compared to spectra based on single earthquake records. These Models are used to assess the damage potential in seismic records.