Wall thinning of outlet feeder piping by flow accelerated corrosion (FAC) is a serious form of degradation affecting some CANDU® stations. The general and localized loss of wall thickness is typically highest at or near welds and changes in pipe geometry due to increased velocity or turbulence. While the process is not a high safety concern because catastrophic failure is unlikely, feeder wall thinning may result in significant economic losses as a result of forced shutdowns for repair and replacement. Accurate modelling and prediction of feeder replacements and the probability of feeder failure is not only important for continued fitness-for-service, but essential for feeder life cycle management (LCM). This paper discusses some of the key issues related to feeder FAC, and presents a probabilistic method for modelling the wall thinning process. The wall thickness loss due to FAC is modelled using a random rate model, while the probability of feeder failure is based on an empirical approach. The developed methodology allows the estimation of the remaining life of both inspected and uninspected feeder populations, while methodically accounting for the uncertainties in the problem.

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