A VISION of Advanced Nuclear System Cost Uncertainty

VISION (VerifIable fuel cycle SImulatiON) is the Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative’s nuclear fuel cycle systems code designed to simulate the U.S. commercial reactor fleet. The code is a dynamic stock and flow model that tracks key material mass flows at the elemental and isotopic levels through the entire nuclear fuel cycle. VISION.ECON is a submodel of VISION that was developed to estimate the costs of electricity. The sub-model uses the mass flows generated by VISION for each of the fuel cycle functions and calculates costs based on the Department of Energy Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis report. This paper provides an evaluation of the cost uncertainty effects attributable to fuel cycle system parameters and scheduling variations. A scenario utilizing a single light-water reactor (LWR) using uranium oxide fuel is examined to ascertain the effects of simple parameter changes. The four variable parameters are burnup, thermal efficiency, capacity factor, and reactor construction time. The effect variables are the total cost of electricity (TCOE) and the fuel cycle costs (FCC). Strategies for future analysis are also discussed. Future work consists of extending the analysis to more complex scenarios, including LWRs using mixed oxide fuel and fast recycling reactors using transuranic fuel.