Test Uncertainty and Failure Mode Discovery

An uncertainty metric is used to prioritize testing for initial product development. Similar metrics are used in signal processing, cryptography, and digital communication. The greatest benefit of this metric is to maximize testing value to discover failures. A major drawback is a reduction in the accuracy of launch reliability estimates. A preferred approach uses two separate testing processes, the first will increase the initial issue discovery using the uncertainty metric while the second increases the accuracy of the reliability estimation. Engine development data is presented to highlight the application of this metric for both engine and vehicle testing.