The reliability of a gas turbine engine structure is affected by the uncertainties in the operating environment (speed, temperature etc.) as well as in the structural properties (material properties, geometries, boundary conditions etc.). A computational method for accurate reliability estimation under such uncertainties is described in this paper. Reliability computation for individual failure modes (burst, LCF etc.) as well as overall system failure is addressed. System failure probability is computed through the union of individual mode failures. The method also provides precise sensitivity information about the effect of each uncertain parameter on the individual failure probabilities as well as on the system failure probability. Such quantitative information helps rational design decisions as well as risk assessment and certification.

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