Gas turbines (GT) are often forced to operate in harsh environmental conditions. Therefore, the presence of particles in their flow-path is expected. With this regard, deposition is a problem that severely affects gas turbine operation. Components’ lifetime and performance can dramatically vary as a consequence of this phenomenon. Unfortunately, the operating conditions of the machine can vary in a wide range, and they cannot be treated as deterministic. Their stochastic variations greatly affect the forecasting of life and performance of the components. In this work, the main parameters considered affected by the uncertainty are the circumferential hot core location and the turbulence level at the inlet of the domain. A stochastic analysis is used to predict the degradation of a high-pressure-turbine (HPT) nozzle due to particulate ingestion. The GT’s component analyzed as a reference is the HPT nozzle of the Energy-Efficient Engine (E3). The uncertainty quantification technique used is the probabilistic collocation method (PCM). This work shows the impact of the operating conditions uncertainties on the performance and lifetime reduction due to deposition. Sobol indices are used to identify the most important parameter and its contribution to life. The present analysis enables to build confidence intervals on the deposit profile and on the residual creep-life of the vane.

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