We developed and successfully applied a direct simulation Monte-Carlo scheme to quantify the risk of fracture for heavy duty rotors commonly used in the energy sector. The developed Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics high-performance computing methodology and code ProbFM routinely assesses relevant modes of operation for a component by performing billions of individual fracture mechanics simulations. The methodology can be used for new design and life-optimization of components, as well as for the risk of failure quantification of in service rotors and their re-qualifications in conjunction with non-destructive examination techniques, such as ultrasonic testing. The developed probabilistic scheme integrates material data, ultra-sonic testing information, duty-cycle data, and finite element analysis in order to determine the risk of failure. The methodology provides an integrative and robust measure of the fitness for service and allows for a save and reliable operation management of heavy duty rotating equipment.

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