The design of an efficient organic rankine cycle (ORC) expander needs to take properly into account strong real gas effects that may occur in given ranges of operating conditions, which can also be highly variable. In this work, we first design ORC turbine geometries by means of a fast 2-D design procedure based on the method of characteristics (MOC) for supersonic nozzles characterized by strong real gas effects. Thanks to a geometric post-processing procedure, the resulting nozzle shape is then adapted to generate an axial ORC blade vane geometry. Subsequently, the impact of uncertain operating conditions on turbine design is investigated by coupling the MOC algorithm with a Probabilistic Collocation Method (PCM) algorithm. Besides, the injector geometry generated at nominal operating conditions is simulated by means of an in-house CFD solver. The code is coupled to the PCM algorithm and a performance sensitivity analysis, in terms of adiabatic efficiency and power output, to variations of the operating conditions is carried out.

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