This paper addresses the problem of estimation of unmeasured gas turbine engine variables using statistical analysis of measured data. Possible changes of an engine health condition and lack of information about these changes caused by limited instrumentation are taken into account. Engine thrust is under consideration as one of the most important unmeasured parameters. Two common methods of aircraft gas turbine engine (GTE) thrust monitoring and their errors due to health condition changes are analyzed. Additionally, two mathematical techniques that allow reducing in-flight thrust estimation errors in the case of GTE deterioration are suggested and verified in the paper. They are a ridge trace and a principal component analysis.

A turbofan engine has been chosen as a test case. The engine has five measured variables and 23 health parameters to describe its health condition. Measurement errors are simulated using a generator of random numbers with the normal distribution. The engine is presented in calculations by its nonlinear component level model (CLM). Results of the comparison of thrust estimates computed by the CLM and the proposed techniques confirm accuracy of the techniques. The regression model on principal components has demonstrated the highest accuracy.

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