The fracture risk of aircraft engine components is sensitive to small changes in the applied stress history. Although standard missions have been developed for design of military aircraft, stress values based on data obtained from flight data recorders can differ significantly from the design values. In this paper, a comprehensive framework is presented for probabilistic treatment of aircraft engine usage that consists of the following four stages: (1) data retrieval, (2) mission identification, (3) stress characterization, and (4) risk prediction. An example is presented that illustrates the approach for a number of actual flight histories. The framework can be applied to quantitative risk predictions of gas turbine engine components for enhanced life management, including potential life extension and associated cost savings.

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