The prediction of possible faults in gas turbines power systems can have a great impact on the maintenance program efficiency as they can allow generators optimize generation schedule and increase profits. This study provides an evaluation of the gas turbine life time during its operation over a life cycle and evaluates the risk involved in such assessment. A mathematical model was developed to calculate the principal variables that take part in life cycle assessment: time, temperature and stress loads. Because of stochastic nature of the failure mechanisms involved in life cycle assessment of gas turbines, a probabilistic risk analysis was carried out to properly evaluate the uncertainty involved. The work conditions of the gas turbine identify the mechanical failure mechanism that rules a gas turbine life. The risk analysis algorithm produces the expected window time in which the turbine blade is expected to failure and its respective probability. The gas turbine life cycle assessment and risk analysis described in this investigation are strategic and powerful tools for optimization of gas turbines power systems.

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