A methodology is shown for predicting the time-dependent reliability (probability of survival) of ceramic components against catastrophic rupture when subjected to thermal and mechanical cyclic loads. This methodology is based on the Weibull distribution to model stochastic strength and a power law that models subcritical crack growth. Changes in material response that can occur with temperature or time (i.e. changing fatigue and Weibull parameters with temperature or time) are accommodated by segmenting a cycle into discrete time increments. Material properties are assumed to be constant within an increment, but can vary between increments. This capability has been added to the NASA CARES/Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code. The code has been modified to have the ability to interface with commercially available finite element analysis codes such as ANSYS executed for transient load histories. Examples are provided to demonstrate the features of the methodology as implemented in the CARES/Life program.

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