A Probabilistic Risk-Based Approach to Assess NASA Aeronautics Technologies

NASA’s aeronautics research program invests in air-transportation technologies to protect the environment, makes air travel more accessible and affordable for Americans, enables exploration through new aerospace missions, and augments national security. The program will address critical public needs related to reduction of aircraft noise and emissions, and enable new science missions. In this paper, a probabilistic risk-based approach is presented to provide guidance for developing a robust technology portfolio, and to prioritize the most promising technologies required to achieve aeronautics program goals. An assessment of subsonic aircraft emission-reduction technologies is performed to demonstrate how the approach can be used to guide technology investment in the context of limited NASA funding for aeronautics technology research.