Accurate prognostic models and associated algorithms that are capable of predicting future component failure rates or performance degradation rates for shipboard propulsion systems are critical for optimizing the timing of recurring maintenance actions. As part of the Naval maintenance philosophy on Condition Based Maintenance (CBM), prognostic algorithms are being developed for gas turbine applications that utilize state-of-the-art probabilistic modeling and analysis technologies. Naval Surface Warfare Center, Carderock Division (NSWCCD) Code 9334 has continued interest in investigating methods for implementing CBM algorithms to modify gas turbine preventative maintenance in such areas as internal crank wash, fuel nozzles and lube oil filter replacement. This paper will discuss a prognostic modeling approach developed for the LM2500 and Allison 501-K17 gas turbines based on the combination of probabilistic analysis and fouling test results obtained from NSWCCD in Philadelphia. In this application, the prognostic module is used to assess and predict compressor performance degradation rates due to salt deposit ingestion. From this information, the optimum time for on-line waterwashing or crank washing from a cost/benefit standpoint is determined.

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