The paper takes on the issue of uncertainty in statistical methods of cracks propagation. The goal of the paper was to develop a method, which would enable use of diagnostic information in assessment of fatigue damage process.

Particular attention was paid to the possibility of forecasting the occurrence of damage due to fatigue while relying on the analysis of the structure of a vibroacoustic signal. The difficulty in this case is that the set of parameters containing diagnostic information may change as defects develop. This fact confirms the necessity of examining the evolution of probability distribution and defining the periods of an object’s operation, carried out while taking into account the actual technical condition as well as the associated identification of defect development phases. The study presents the following issue: developing the method of diagnosing the early stages of defect development while analyzing energy of vibroacoustics signal as parameter of logistics model of cracks development.

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