Estimation of the mean lifetime and reliability of sophisticated systems such as cogeneration power plant (CHP) is a challenging problem in energy-engineering applications. A simulation model that predicts failure and repair times is described and used to calculate operating time availability and costs to operate the system. The new concept of estimated repair time with a Weibull probability density function is the key to the study of the down time. This probability distribution was defined for each component to estimate the time necessary to repair and the associated costs in economic and sustainability terms. The described simulation model provides a tool that demonstrates the competitive advantage or disadvantage of the CHP system for an application and enables more informed decisions as to their designs.
- Advanced Energy Systems Division
Incorporating Reliability and Failure Models Into Energy System Analysis
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Piana, U, Kowalski, GJ, & Zenouzi, M. "Incorporating Reliability and Failure Models Into Energy System Analysis." Proceedings of the ASME 2014 8th International Conference on Energy Sustainability collocated with the ASME 2014 12th International Conference on Fuel Cell Science, Engineering and Technology. Volume 1: Combined Energy Cycles, CHP, CCHP, and Smart Grids; Concentrating Solar Power, Solar Thermochemistry and Thermal Energy Storage; Geothermal, Ocean, and Emerging Energy Technologies; Hydrogen Energy Technologies; Low/Zero Emission Power Plants and Carbon Sequestration; Photovoltaics; Wind Energy Systems and Technologies. Boston, Massachusetts, USA. June 30–July 2, 2014. V001T01A001. ASME. https://doi.org/10.1115/ES2014-6311
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