Incorporating Reliability and Failure Models Into Energy System Analysis

Estimation of the mean lifetime and reliability of sophisticated systems such as cogeneration power plant (CHP) is a challenging problem in energy-engineering applications. A simulation model that predicts failure and repair times is described and used to calculate operating time availability and costs to operate the system. The new concept of estimated repair time with a Weibull probability density function is the key to the study of the down time. This probability distribution was defined for each component to estimate the time necessary to repair and the associated costs in economic and sustainability terms. The described simulation model provides a tool that demonstrates the competitive advantage or disadvantage of the CHP system for an application and enables more informed decisions as to their designs.