This paper describes a simple integrated model of global warming due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions, which can help the policy makers in considering various CO2 mitigation strategies. First, the constant airborne fraction model is generalized to establish relationship between CO2 emissions and CO2 concentration in the atmosphere which is then used to determine the global average surface temperature using the Oglesby and Saltzman’s general circulation model. Using these simple relationships, the forecast for CO2 emissions, CO2 concentration and average global surface temperature is made for years 2030 and 2050 under Business as Usual (BAU) scenario. In order to achieve an acceptable target increase in global average surface temperature, several simple CO2 mitigation approaches, proposed by Socolow and Lam, are included in the integrated model.
- Advanced Energy Systems Division and Solar Energy Division
An Integrated Model of Global Warming and Policy Making
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Zhang, Z, & Agarwal, R. "An Integrated Model of Global Warming and Policy Making." Proceedings of the ASME 2011 5th International Conference on Energy Sustainability. ASME 2011 5th International Conference on Energy Sustainability, Parts A, B, and C. Washington, DC, USA. August 7–10, 2011. pp. 827-835. ASME. https://doi.org/10.1115/ES2011-54122
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