Calibrated energy simulations are often used to predict savings from energy conservation measures with little information about their associated prediction uncertainties. In this paper, the savings predicted by calibrated simulation models are compared to actual savings obtained through monitoring energy use before and after implementing selected energy conservation measures for three residential buildings. Both building envelope and HVAC system related energy conservation measures are considered in the study. Through case studies, this validity of using calibrated energy models for the estimation and verification of savings associated with energy conservation measures is thoroughly evaluated. Moreover, the paper provides useful guidelines for using calibrated models for measurement and verification energy savings from various weatherization programs specific to residential buildings.

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